Authors: Giry, Benoit ; Le Prigent, Angèle ; Mazières, Sofiane ; Michel, Eileen Journal: French politics Year: 2026
Available here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41253-026-00338-2. I can send the article by e-mail upon demand.
Abstract
The spring 2020 lockdown in France thwarted variable-based analyses: while the population largely complied with the health measure, key compliance indicators seemed to predict the opposite. How, then, can we explain the fact that the French population complied with lockdown so easily? Using simple agent-based simulations, this article tests three possible explanatory mechanisms based on two distinct conceptions of the public: atomized or interacting. By systematically comparing the results produced by the models with the actual lockdown curve, it assesses the probability of each. Social contagion model is the most likely, followed by police and media coverage models. In conclusion, the article recommends that ordinary interactions between citizens be considered to understand the implementation of public policies, and that simulation be used more systematically to study the power of the sanitary state.